Which suggests that the original 6 jobs have a higher probability of occurring and is exactly what we're seeing in the data. This is speculation but apears to match the numbers". In other words: there's a chance that some job earrings are actually more common than others.Īn interesting note from Andromida's analysis of his data: "I believe SE are using a random number between 0 and 255 which each job being given 11 numbers with 6 numbers remaining which appear to be allotted to WHM BLM MNK WAR RDM THF so most jobs have 11 in 255 chance but those jobs have 12 in 255 chance. As a first assumption, we expect each job to have a 1/22 (4.55%) chance of showing up, but the observed data deviates from simulations with this assumption (see below). The job distribution is roughly evenly spread, but some jobs appear to be programmatically more likely.
No "+2" earrings were obtained from NQ cases This applies for obtaining "+1" earrings from NQ cases and "+2" earrings from "+1" cases. The rate of obtaining an upgraded earring from a case is roughly 4.0%. Less than 1 in 10 odds to get a max augment on a NQ earring from NQ case and 3.5% chance of getting a +1 earring with max augments from a NQ case. I will be starting to save up my +1 old cases and repeat this to see how skewed the augment tier really is. TLDR: What this means is the probability of just getting a max augmented +1 earring from a NQ case, ( irrespective of its job) is = (0.05)(0.071) They only have one augment, and it can 6,7,8,9, or 10. I also looked at the tier of augment received on each earring using the NQ earrings only. So the odds of getting a +1 earring from a NQ case is 4.965% or ~5%. Of those, 141 were NQ earrings, and 7 were +1 earrings. I started saving up NQ boxes until I had 148. I think what we need is some solid math to get the basic statistics out of the way.
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